The next wave

Jeffrey Shaman

BS UPenn, MA/PhD Columbia 
Director of the Climate and Health Program
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

In conversation with:

Michael Caruso

CC '83, Editorial Director, The Hill

Covid is surging again in the US with an average of more than 100.000 cases a day. But experts say the next wave will be much worse. During the summer, transmission rates are suppressed as people spend more of their time outdoors. And the massive spread of the omicron variant has created a temporary infection-induced state of high immunity across the country.

In this conversation with Prof. Jeffrey Shaman, a world-renown infectious disease modeler and epidemiologist, Michael Caruso explores the parameters of this possible new wave. As that immunity fades and people head back indoors for the fall and winter, health experts predict that we are in for a dangerous new spike--and that's without considering the strong chance another highly-transmissible variant will suddenly emerge somewhere in the world.

This is a crucial moment to look at where we are in the war against Covid and what the immediate and long-term future holds.

Time will be allocated for Q&A.

Jeffrey Shaman is a Professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences and Director of the Climate and Health Program at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. He studies the survival, transmission and ecology of infectious agents, including the effects of meteorological and hydrological conditions on these processes. Work-to-date has primarily focused on mosquito-borne and respiratory pathogens. He uses mathematical and statistical models to describe, understand, and forecast the transmission dynamics of these disease systems, and to investigate the broader effects of climate and weather on human health.


Michael Caruso serves as the editorial director of The Hill's Changing America. Previously, he was the fourth editor-in-chief of the Smithsonian magazine, a position he held from 2011 to 2019. Prior to that, he was a Deputy Editor at The Wall Street Journal.

August 10, 2022 at 6:30pm - 8pm


Washington, DC
United States

Miyako Yerick


Will you come?